Observed and Expected Metrics

Observed and Expected values are calculated based on the number of Outcome Cases not the number of Total Cases.

Observed

Observed is the outcome’s (Mortality, LOS, Cost/Case, etc.) rate. Observed values are always based on the Outcome Cases and the data submitted by your facility.

Expected

The Expected value (Mortality, LOS, Cost/Case, etc.) is calculated by the risk adjustment methodology – 3M™ APR DRG or CareScience Analytics - and the historical data in the Premier Perspective Database.

• The Expected values on 3M™ analyses are calculated based on the normative values in the Perspective Database. Normative values are averages calculated at the APR DRG SOI subclass level for metrics such as average LOS, charges, and cost.
• The Expected values on CareScience Analytics analyses are generated from a multi-variate regression model using data from the Premier Perspective Database. CareScience Expected values are calculated at two levels: Standard Practice and Select Practice.
  

O/E

O/E is the Observed value (O) divided by the Expected value (E).

• Outcomes with an O/E less than 1.0 are performing better than expected.
• Outcomes with an O/E greater than 1.0 are performing worse than expected.

Variation

Variation is the Observed value minus the Expected value.

• Outcomes with a negative variation are performing better than expected.
• Outcomes with a positive variation are performing worse than expected. Variation has three levels of Statistical Significance: 75%, 95%, and 99%.